American Idol
Epsilon Theory
May 6, 2020·9 comments·Politics
A singer can have perfect technique, but without an audience watching an audience, the performance collapses into something unwatchable. In 2020, American Idol switched from live performances before crowds to home-filmed episodes. The talent didn't diminish. The production quality held up. What vanished was the social proof that made millions care.
- The actual performance improved in measurable ways. Better individual backstories, professional mixing, excellent musicians, diverse talent. By every technical metric, the show was competent. Yet viewers abandoned it.
- Quality and execution stopped mattering the moment the crowd disappeared. American Idol's ratings cratered year-over-year despite no decline in performer ability. The content got better while engagement collapsed. Something else determines whether people tune in.
- This isn't about American Idol. Warren Buffett's 2020 shareholder meeting, delivered solo to a camera instead of before thousands, felt hollow to viewers. Donald Trump's press conferences, absent his rallies, drain his political power. The performers remained exceptional. The venue made all the difference.
- The crowd watching the crowd is the actual performance. We don't consume performances in isolation. We consume them through the lens of how others respond to them. Remove that mirror and audiences lose the signal telling them what to care about.
- Every form of public power depends on this mechanism, and almost nobody discusses it. From political movements to corporate authority to entertainment franchises, the underlying currency is collective validation. What happens when institutions lose access to live crowds?
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Comments
This was easily among the best ET notes, Ben! You’re 100% on point - it’s a truth hidden in plain sight.
Well written, as always.
As to your final point, or warning to the Sports leagues about competing in empty stadiums;
The issue with the various sports leagues and competitions around the world is survival.
They have to play to secure broadcasting revenue. for eg, in my backyard, the National Rugby League Commissioner has publicly revealed that if play doesn’t resume prior to Sept 2020, the game will be lost to Australia.
So I guess its “Yay, Employment !!!”
Yes, boring, I agree cause the last two rounds of competition before lockdown were played in early March to empty stadiums and yes, it was very different; no atmosphere, ( you actually can “feel” as well as see the emptiness even on TV ). Everyone will suffer, ratings will surely go down, but at least they have a shot at survival.
Methinks it will not stop pro sports resuming asap in numerous countries around the globe.
Pax,
John
Well said, Ben. Zoom can’t reach us the same as a live performance. Virtual church, anyone? I didn’t think so…
Noticed there was no round 2 of the NBA’s HORSE competition. Would have been more interesting if each letter earned was accompanied by a shot of tequila. Thank you for the connect to JB’s article which is an excellent companion to your own wonderful piece.
Maybe a positive outcome of this is that we will get back to more doing and less spectating.
Great note Ben. Very very interesting observation about the importance of the audience seeing the audience. I guess that was a big part of the power of the newsreel footage of Hitler’s speeches at the annual Nuremberg Rally. Just the fact that that the newsreel audience sees that there were thousands of people in front of him giving him their full rapt attention makes him seem powerful (“social proof”). He was also reportedly a fantastic and passionate orator of course.
On a different point:
The comparison photos of the American Idol contestants show many things different in addition to the lack of a visible audience: Very dressed up glamorous clothes vs dressed down; no spectacular lighting and stage decoration at home; no stage that signifies a difference between the performers and the audience which if present raises the performers to a special status just by being on a stage; the contestants all together on the stage in the pre-COVID-19 photo, which enhances the feeling of competition and of this being a gathering for “an event”.
This makes me think that the TV production company screwed up by making it obvious that the contestants were at home. They should have shipped in a green screen (or a can of green paint and a paintbrush) so that they could replace the background with something exotic, and some colored lights, had the contestants dressed up to the nines, and made it feel like it was something special, something in the realm of fantasy, not Fred sitting in a tee shirt in his living room.
I like the old school reel to reel tape decks one of the competitors had in the background. A nice retro touch. My Dad had a few of them, so it takes me back.
Ben- I have frequently, and for a long time, averred that sport teams have become our new totems- the central rallying cry, and focal point of the universe for our tribe. (This occurred to me after watching a George Carlin comedy bit regarding what do we root for when we root for our team- the players change twice a year, no one even knows who they are anymore, the only thing that remains is the uniform with a number on it, so basically we are rooting for “laundry.” He was right, but not completely, we are rooting for our tribe!)
This is part of the same set of psychosocial forces that lead to the crowd watching behavior of all of us. Of note, in a recent article in City Journal, entitled: “What Do We Clap For When We Clap For Government?”, I kept thinking of our “yay government” meme here. I think you (and others) would find it an interesting read:
https://www.city-journal.org/high-price-of-federal-stimulus-packages
Please keep up the great work.
Signed as a member of the pack far enough away that i may not make it to many meetings, but still thinking of all of us, and also working to spread the word and change the narrative one person at a time.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can’t lose (i can only hope-there really is no other choice, below us is the abyss)
Barry Newman
In Bull Durham the radio sportscaster used sound effects as he relayed an away game to his audience. The crowd watching the crowd…so true. We see it in markets every day.
I like virtual church – the good padre can’t see me dozing off during his sermon!
Another great note! On a somewhat superficial level, there is a precedent for a reality competition show being canceled before the winner was announced – the third season of Last Comic Standing which the mighty Alonzo Bodden won. I’m not sure if the episode announcing his win was ever aired!
Thankfully he has gone on to have a significant career (and he did get the prize money for what it’s worth!). In fact, and this does speak to the theme of the note, I attended an online comedy performance of his a few days ago which was actually really entertaining. I think it was a combination of the fact that he is just so damn funny, and that they let the Zoom ‘audience’ have their video and audio on so the comedian could see and hear the laughs. It obviously had to be closely moderated (I was muted for laughing too hard, hahaha!), but it seemed to work fairly well.
All the best to the pack!
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