An Experiment
Rusty Guinn
January 6, 2020·83 comments·epsilon theory archive
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Comments
Leave your guesses here, cowards!
Is 1968 the first year in the data series of whatever this is, or the first year in your reporting/analysis of whatever this is?
Not the first year in the data series, just the first one I care about for completely arbitrary reasons that seemed good to me.
First thought was # of countries with greater than or equal to x% of global GDP.
Got excited when I went here (https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/) and it looked like 5 countries had greater than 50% currently.
Downloaded data from the worldbank that goes back to 1960, and quick analysis says that the concentration of wealth has actually gone down from top 5 controlling >50% in the 60s to top 8 controlling >50% now. (8 does not match the 5 from the above linked website, obviously, but I assume this is directional. also, I’m sure there are issues with the data set that could be driving this… either way, I’ve spent too much time on it and this appears to be a dead end, so I’ll go back to work).
My other thought was something like # of companies in the DJIA that are in X sector.
of AAA companies?
Hmm… according to Rusty, what peaked in the late 60s / 70s and has gone downhill ever since? Have to go with “Songs that are Actually Good”
Data is discrete so not %, or dollars. Number of something but haven’t got a clue as to what. Couldn’t even guess without a clue. May have some relationship to recessions and dot com boom and bust.
Something to do with the consolidation in the spirits or beer market. Number of firms that make up x% of global sales —- I’m trying to play the player here
The shape looks a lot like - but isn’t - US military spending as a % of GDP. It’s also shaped like federal minimum wage in constant dollars. But it isn’t. Being a discrete set, I am going to guess: number of “major” US military contractors. (say, defence revenue of over x, maybe $10B in current dollars). The current 5 being Lockheed, Boeing, Raytheon, GD, and Northrop. And now we have Raytheon-UTI.
How many companies make up half of the Sp500 Tech sector?
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