Covid is China's Vietnam War

Nice synthesis, as always Ben!

You highlight medicine shortages and ICU bed availability, which is spot on. I would also say it’s worth noting the nursing shortage. It was a problem even before COVID, the strain and burnout of the past two years have exacerbated the shortfall, and it’s not expected to get better until at least the end of this decade

It does seem certain that the current information out of the CCP is false. Though to me it’s more strange for the lack of disinformation narratives that usually accompany such false numbers. The silence is interesting… Is it that the CCP don’t know what to say? That there’s no consensus about which lie to put forward?

I was surprised about the part in your post about them lying 3 years ago. Partially because I built my models based on that information back then and thought their data was surprisingly reliable and the rest of the world had similar CFRs in the months afterwards. Partially, because they were able to, against all odds, to actually stop COVID back then. If they were underreporting the numbers, then I don’t think they would have been able to do the “impossible”.

So I went and reread the 3-years ago post, and while it may apply to the situation today, I’m not sure it holds up very well in the original context. The concept of the CCP just following a model, instead of reporting real number, can make sense. But the fact that the CFRs turned out to be so on point, for a novel virus, makes for a pretty strong counterargument. But the biggest counterargument, in light of

“The really damning part of Antimonic’s modeling of the reported data with a quadratic formula is that this should be impossible. This is not how epidemics work.”

is that they did, in fact, do the “impossible”.

“ **The current Covid outbreak will fundamentally weaken the Chinese**government, because now every Chinese citizen knows that every Chinese citizen knows that the CCP is not just a liar, but an incompetent, failed liar.**”

You are wrong. Esteem for the Central government is going up now that they have reversed course and are prioritizing the economy. I have lived in China 9 years and can tell you that you are projecting your own western values onto Chinese people, and they just don’t think that way. This is an extremely common problem in western analysis of Chinese culture and governance, and it is a root cause of the adversarial relationship between the two countries.

Wow, that’s an interesting perspective. This’ll be fascinating to watch play out…

Anatoly - How do you arrive at the conclusion that China did the impossible and stopped Covid when the data coming out of China appears rather untrustworthy? China’s problem with truth in statistics is particularly acute.

Gary, this is an interesting perspective. How are you measuring esteem for the government? Is there some sort of a realistic metric that reflects this? Or is your view more from an anecdotal what folks around you are saying?

I mean … either the Chinese gov’t was an incompetent liar then as they locked Shanghai down for months or they are an incompetent liar now as Shanghai locks itself down and hospitals/morgues overflow.

I understand that lots of people want China to open back up and stop all of what they consider to be “the Zero Covid nonsense”, but that’s a very different thing from “esteem” or trust or competence.

The CCP will manufacture a winning narrative either way.
If deaths go up substantially and can’t be effectively hidden from the public, they might claim to have been correct all along. “We capitulated to the public protests and gave you your freedom, and you see what that is costing you now”, or some such.
Interesting that the WHO has become mildly critical of the bodybag undercount.

I couldn’t agree more. As a hospital RN in the mid ‘90s I witnessed nurses treated as widgets, and it has only become worse.
I get incensed at the salaries which not-for-profit hospital administrators pay themselves. They increase the size of their empires and hire cronies at the same time as not wanting to pay for critical staff such as LNAs (aides), LPNs and RNs.
Is it OK for a non-profit hospital CEO to pay him/herself $2-7 million annually, all the while constantly asking the community to givegivegive to help the “Miracle Network” or some such? Annually asking the State to allow 10-15% reimbursement increases from insurers? Cashiers asking you to “round-up” to help the hospital?
I see it as the cousin of the for-profit companies going too far on share buybacks, management enriching themselves.
Nothing is sacred anymore.
My $2.00’s worth ($0.02 if it wasn’t a rant)…

If you are asking why I am willing to believe that:

A. China was able to reverse and effectively control the pandemic 3 years ago through draconian emergency measures

B. Maintain a non-existent to minimal spread of COVID over the majority of the past 3 years through draconian policies commonly referred to as “Zero COVID”

It is because I don’t think they would have been able to cover up any alternative outcomes when it comes to COVID spread.

@bhunt Are you saying that one of these being true is the same as both being true? I guess I could be splitting hairs here, but it doesn’t feel like I am.

Beyond that, I am suggesting that they were actually extraordinarily competent “then” and defied all odds.

I am not saying that the CCP is trustworthy, or that I agree with their policies. I am saying that when using historical analysis to make a point, the veracity of said analysis is important and not trivial.