First the People
Rusty Guinn
April 14, 2020·74 comments·Politics
Institutions we were told would protect us revealed something different when pressure mounted. The WHO prioritized political relationships over health guidance. The CDC limited testing to keep reported numbers manageable. Universities with billion-dollar endowments furloughed janitors. What happens when the protective narratives these organizations built their authority on collapse in a single moment?
- Every major institution told us a story about itself, and COVID-19 revealed the story was the only thing real. The WHO claimed to serve global health but served Chinese interests. The CDC claimed to protect Americans but protected its own credibility. Universities claimed progressive values but protected endowments. The contradiction between stated mission and actual behavior became undeniable.
- These weren't execution failures or communication breakdowns. They were institutional failures of narrative, where organizations actively distorted evidence to protect preferred stories. The CDC maintained false testing criteria. The WHO ignored its own Hong Kong studies contradicting China. Media outlets downplayed risk because it conflicted with their political opponents' positioning. Each choice was deliberate.
- The pattern repeats across every sector and the wealthy always emerge intact. Corporate boards approved bonuses before bankruptcy filings. Wall Street got trillion-dollar Fed support while workers got stimulus checks. Congress loaded emergency bills with pet projects. When crisis arrives, the system reshuffles losses downward and gains upward, then asks us to move on.
- We all saw the same betrayal at the same moment for the first time. Every family watched institutions fail simultaneously. There was no hiding, no narrative escape, no plausible deniability. The world-as-it-is became visible to everyone at once. That moment creates possibility.
- The coming political cycle will try to convert this awareness into a voting decision. You'll be told electing the right person fixes this. The real opportunity isn't in November, it's in whether we forget what we've learned about which institutions actually deserve our trust and participation. That choice determines everything.
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Comments
But futures are up, Rusty. So why so serious?
Rusty, this might be the most important post for me since “The Three Body Problem”. As usual, part of me is angry for taking the red pill, but it’s throughly outweighed by the stark joy of truth I feel this morning. You and Ben are doing an incredible job and I’m extraordinarily thankful to have found Epsilon Theory, and more importantly, my pack…
That’s really kind of you to say. I feel that way a lot, too - especially the gratitude that we’re in this together.
Amazing! A brilliant proof of Pournelle’s law and that it’s sociopaths all the way down.
There is a libertarian paradox here which maybe you can solve. Welcome to the fourth turning.
Congrats on a great read!
Rarely do readers benefit by committing an hour of time and, in exchange, absorb 100 hours of a writers time. Thank you. What happens when what’s moral is what’s legal and what’s legal is for sale in Washington? https://www.lbs.co/blog/why-us-political-risk-should-be-a-factor-in-portfolio-risk-budgets
An absolutely brilliant post, and there were several priceless phrases, such as “I keep waiting on Paul Krugman to jump out and shout ‘The Aristocrats’ or something.” I was also fascinated that you brought up the Uighurs in China, because I had only heard that was an issue from ONE podcast, and from no news sources. Thank you, Rusty.
Rusty, I have joined the pack due to the impact of this piece and Ben’s Inception. State governments have failed miserably as well in their response to this crisis. Under-investment in their healthcare systems, failure to respond to advance warnings such as the “Crimson Contagion” exercise, leads to the creation of healthcare heroes as efficiently as the creation of British heroes in the Battle of the Somme. We need to do better in the New Normal than we did in the old. Keep up the great work!
Really great job Rusty. Kudos.
I’ve been reading for awhile but this one got me. I joined up because of this article. It was absolutely beautiful (brutally beautiful).
Also, social media companies did not represent our interests. By promoting favored narratives, they suppressed free speech. YouTube demonetized Peak Prosperity for casting doubt on the “it’s the flu” narrative among others. Every CV-19 related video on YouTube contains links to the CDC (which had earlier: masks don’t work, it’s the flu). Reddit CV forums were tightly censored by a small group of narrative loyalists with moderation and banning.
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