Misfortune vs. Carelessness
June 9, 2020·6 comments·Politics
The same employment data error has happened three months in a row, each time in exactly the same direction, making unemployment look better than it is. Officials defend the Bureau of Labor Statistics as well-intentioned professionals. But knowing errors exist and failing to correct them is different from accidental misclassification. Something about the relationship between measurement and power has shifted.
• The unemployment rate reported in May was 13.3%, but the same misclassification error that's repeated for three months suggests it could have been 16.1%. That's not a rounding difference. It's a canyon between what the data says and what the data shows.
• The same error keeps happening the same way. When accidents repeat identically for months with consistent bias, calling it misfortune becomes harder to defend.
• The BLS knows about these errors and publicizes them afterward. Transparency about a mistake is not the same as preventing the mistake when you have the power to do so.
• This pattern played out before under a different president. Initial unemployment claims were systematically undercounted during Obama's first term, then stopped after his re-election. Same mechanism, different administration.
• What changes is whether the people in charge decide to fix what they know is broken. The question isn't whether institutions are competent. It's whether they choose to be.
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Comments
My definition of a mistake is “wanton disregard for protocol or procedure”. You know what needs to be done, you just choose not to do it.
I was waiting for you to write about the BLS data. I would have bet everything I own that “They’re. Not. Even. Pretending. Anymore.” would have been in here somewhere. Alas, I am no betting man.
Lies, damned lies and statistics.
Go check out the Official Trump Coloring Book as shown on Jimmy Kimmel and on page 2 count the stars in the flag. 48. Hey, that’s within our 4% margin of error. We’re cool. Cut. Print. Fade to Black.
The Fifth Risk ?
It is not the right vs the left. It is the government vs you!
Trusting the government is rarely a good thing. Unfortunately, many now fail to see that the good of this country comes from the people and (relatively) free markets. Those folks want more government rather than less.
Exactly. This is not necessarily an endorsement of the site, but Zero Hedge has been beating this drum for a very long time. Apparently if you run the numbers through the same filter they used in the depression (as opposed to the rejiggered one they use now, sort of like what they did with inflation), the unemployment percentage is much higher.
My mother recently found her father’s pocket compass, which he received as a Boy Scout in 1924. It still works faithfully. My compass, however, my personal direction-finder, often does not work because it is overwhelmed by too much information that is not true and trustworthy…
The rector of our church quoted someone this morning, and he said that “hope is born when optimism dies.” I remain hopeful.
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