Oh No, Here It Comes Again, That Funny Feeling
October 27, 2020·58 comments·Politics
With one week until the election, the mechanics of turnout have shifted in unexpected ways. One candidate is flooding swing states with in-person rallies and distributing footage across social media. The other is speaking to crowds of three non-reporters while trusting that polls will motivate voters. The gap between these two approaches reveals something about how elections are actually won, and it's not what the losing campaign thinks.
• The rallies themselves aren't the point. What matters is the larger audience watching videos of cheering crowds, which triggers a primal instinct to join something that already feels powerful.
• One candidate has figured out that in a turnout election decided by swing states, motivation beats persuasion. The other is still operating as if the goal is to convince undecided voters who barely exist.
• Half a million people watched Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez play a video game on Twitch. Meanwhile, the Democratic frontrunner is relying on traditional campaign infrastructure and the hope that polls will remind people why they should vote.
• The Democratic strategy worked in the primary because a field of candidates collectively stopped Bernie Sanders on Super Tuesday. But that collective effort only works if the candidate leading the party understands how to activate it through media.
• With tens of millions of votes already cast in a pandemic election, traditional crowd-signaling is impossible for one side but not the other. The question is whether social media can replace it, or whether the candidate who mastered that game months ago has already won the narrative war.
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Comments
68 million votes already cast though Ben
In 2008 the Dem’s were playing chess while John McCain played checkers. Today it seems like the Dem’s don’t even get the concept of checkers while Trump is playing chess from his iphone through each tweet he sends.
I do think an interesting difference this election is that in 2016 there were a lot of trump voters “afraid” to admit their support beforehand. I am seeing some people this time around “afraid” to admit they aren’t voting for him.
Ben,
Bingo, you got it, Ben. This is what I fear.
Trump controls the narrative. The media loves it. The media supports it.
He has captured a large percentage of the unconscious minds of the voters.
One of my favorite poets, Maya Angelou, captured the inspirational spirit of those that I admire AND those that I don’t admire.
“I’ve learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel.”― Maya Angelou
Sadly, IMO, Donald Trump, emotionally and unconsciously plays to the core feelings of his followers. They will NEVER forget how he makes them feel.
Next week, America faces its greatest hours.
May it be a decisive defeat for Trump.
Jim Handshaw
Fascinating.
Well, my biggest fear is a Democratic sweep, especially when Ben points out AOC has “figured it out”.
A Democratic sweep with AOC as the true point person is a very scary proposition for the country.
Yes. As I mentioned in the note, my sense is that this is too little, too late for Trump. We’ll see.
This is a fear. This is not my greatest fear.
Nothing in politics really measures on my ‘greatest fear’ scale, but this is one of several possible outcomes I would not be wild about.
My hope is that, after 4 years, rage is a far greater motivator than … whatever it is that turns out the MAGAts.
AOC does play Trump’s game, no apology, just divide and conquer. Seems to me the biggest risk for markets is Biden win, House stays Democrat and Senate stays Republican. Of course, that also might be the shortest path for the Fed buying equities. Americans vote against and not for, that’s why Biden wins. What comes next? I don’t know, but we keep taking “the end justifies the means” to new levels. It’s an exciting time to be alive.
The number one knock on Trump leading up to 2016 was that he was “unelectable” and that he divided the party severely. Fast forward to today and Trump has bent the entire party to his will, mostly by employing the techniques that Ben referenced and forcing other Rs to get on the train or retire. It’s been more effective than I ever imagined for him. The Dem’s are taking the absolute opposite approach. It will be interesting, that’s for sure.
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