Too Connected to Fail

May 4, 2020·13 comments·Money

Capital markets have been explicitly redefined. They are no longer supposed to direct capital to its most productive ends. They are now supposed to generate the returns that pension systems, retirement accounts, and political agendas require them to generate. Once you accept that purpose and implement policies to enforce it, you cannot walk it back. The question is what happens to the capital we direct together when we stop caring where it goes.

Entire institutions now depend on short-term equity returns they once could avoid. State pensions, corporate retirement plans, and executive compensation are no longer optional participants in the stock market. They require it to function. That dependency is recent.
This became common knowledge. Politicians, central banks, and media outlets openly discuss and celebrate the stock market's role in their success. It is no longer a background assumption but an explicit, stated purpose of policy.
The redefinition happened through word and deed without explicit argument. No one voted to change what markets are for. It happened through accumulated policy choices and narrative shifts that everyone now acknowledges as obvious.
Once policies are designed to guarantee returns at any cost, they become nearly impossible to reverse. Removing support would immediately break the institutions that depend on it. That trap is by design now.
Capital allocation follows policy expectations rather than productive potential. Money flows where intervention is promised, not where it creates future value. That compounds across years and leaves the economy less capable of generating real prosperity.

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Comments

bullyalmost 6 years ago

Great stuff as always Rusty. I had this discussion/argument with my kid brother. He’s all in because’ they will save it because they have to " Time will tell.
Also, you have to know that you can’t reference your green chili pork stew without a link to the recipe!

Victor_Kalmost 6 years ago

Clear eyes, full hearts, and make, protect, teach!! Words to live by!
Avoid tireless self-promoters and sociopaths! Words to lose by!!
Choose wisely.

pshermanalmost 6 years ago

Hard to believe that over the long run that Government efforts to control the financial markets " to give us the returns we need" will do anything good.
Economic malaise, increasing wealth disparity and political discontent surely will follow.

Disturbing

rguinnalmost 6 years ago

Thanks, Farmer Don.

OK. No links, but here’s roughly what I do:

Dice one large onion and 4-6 cloves of garlic.
Slice, deseed and lay 6 green chiles flat on a cookie sheet. Hatch would be best, but similar varieties grown elsewhere (e.g. Big Jim, Anaheim) are adequate. Unwrap and chop ten or so tomatillos into 6-8 small pieces each. Lay with peppers on cookie sheet. Drizzle in EVOO, salt and pepper and roast at 385 until peppers are blistered.
Sautee onions and garlic, then set aside.
Cut 3 pound pork butt into roughly 1 1/2" squares. Err on the large side. Salt, then lightly dust in flour.
In a hot dutch oven or similarly sized deep-sided pan, heat enough corn oil to lightly cover the base of the pan. Usually a couple tablespoons, depending on pan size.
When hot, brown each side of the pork butt squares, salting and peppering cooked sides as you go. You might need a couple batches.
(Optional) When all sides are cooked, drizzle with tequila (the pork and/or the cook) and hit with a torch (only the pork).
Add peppers, tomatillos, onions and garlic to dutch oven / pan.
Add enough chicken stock to cover pork completely.
Coarsely chop most of a bunch of cilantro and add.
Add about 3 tbsp of cumin powder and 3 tbsp of ancho chile powder. If you don’t have ancho, regular chile powder (which is often heavily ancho or similar anyway) is fine.
Put in oven at around 225 for an hour and then turn up to 275-300, usually for another 2 hours or so. Pork should be pretty tender by this point, but do a fork test.
Season to taste. Will need some salt for sure, but will depend on the kind of stock you used.
Serve in crocks. I prefer to slice a piece of Manchego over them.
Preferably eat with warm tortillas (spooning pork hunks onto it, etc.)

Zenzeialmost 6 years ago

This recipe may be worth the whole price of subscription. I’m still dream of the Wagyu brisket you served that last summer’s ET gathering (which as I think about it, feels like a million years ago!)

bullyalmost 6 years ago

Outstanding! I always love recipes that start : first, pour four ounces of wine in the cook

lpusaterialmost 6 years ago

Great work Rusty , this note fits in so well with the concept of the long now. You wonder how much longer future returns can be pulled forward? I think the total return on treasury bonds has to be nearly maxed out , unless of course, we go deep into negative territory. With less total return coming from that pool , I can only imagine the pressure to keep the equity markets rising as we go forward. I think of the insurance companies and their reserves? How do they keep the promises made with 0 returns? All roads lead to ruin it seems.

The over/ under on the FEDs balance sheet on the other side of this is 9 trillion IMO.
The debt 30 trillion?
Unfunded Liabilities another 80 trillion?

Then a missionary comes along and tells us all what we already now --that the real inflation rate is 7-8%. Then it gets UGLY!

mikejmerwinalmost 6 years ago

Randy, having grown up 200 yards from a cornfield in Morton, Illinois and a two time Pumpkin Festival pie eating contest winner …I’m curious about your Central Illinois roots. Thanks

rguinnalmost 6 years ago

Minooka, which was maybe 2,000 people back then.

pabloalmost 6 years ago

Come on Rusty, that’s not central Illinois! That’s a suburb of Chicago…
Ya gotta be in spittin distance of Decatur and the great Staley and ADM corn and soybean processing plants to claim central Illinois. Nearby Shelbyville was my hometown, and spent a few summers detasseling corn, baling hay and walking beans, among other mundane “downstate” activities. With the way things are going, may be good skills to have in the future!