What a Good-Looking Question: Things that Don't Matter #2
March 31, 2017·1 comment·Money
Investors spend hours discussing individual stocks while knowing deep down this discussion barely moves portfolio returns. Yet the more comfortable and familiar the conversation becomes, the more time it consumes. The result: meetings structured around the thing that matters least, protecting the conversations investors don't want to have.
• The zero-sum math is relentless. For every investor who outweighs a good stock, another underweights it. Both pay fees. The math doesn't care how smart the analysis is.
• Familiarity breeds false confidence. You know Apple because you use their products. You know Exxon because someone works there. This consumer knowledge feels like investing insight but provides zero edge in predicting stock movement.
• Even concentrated genius doesn't translate to diversified portfolios. A legendary investor like Cooperman operates in 5 or 6 positions where deep understanding matters. Most portfolios hold dozens or hundreds where individual stock knowledge accounts for less than 10% of total risk.
• Stock talk is the perfect distraction. Fund managers love when you want to discuss individual companies. It establishes rapport, keeps meetings flowing, and prevents uncomfortable questions about fees, performance and how they actually make money for you.
• Fundamental analysis is necessary but not sufficient. Understanding a company's balance sheet means nothing if you can't predict how the next $500 million of marginal buyers will react to that information. That's where almost everyone gets lost.
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Comments
Rusty
I have recently re-read the series and have found my meetings with fund managers far more productive. Just the simple question, “How do you make money?” has been an eye opener. They either get it straight away or else you are forever trying to stop them showing you stock and performance slides.
I can highly recommend this series (along with everything else on ET!) to be read in the same way you paint the San Francisco bridge - when you have finished start again!
All the best
to you and Ben
Clive
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