Season of the Glitch
Epsilon Theory
September 3, 2015·0 comments·Money
Market participants are calling structural failures "glitches." The terminology persists even though the underlying problem is something else entirely: a vast crowd of investors are confusing what they think they're doing with what they're actually doing. This confusion costs real money and keeps getting worse.
- The language matters more than the problem. Over 90 Wall Street Journal articles in two months blamed computer glitches for market dislocations, from pricing failures to trading halts. Yet calling something a glitch obscures whether the real issue is technological or behavioral.
- The people profiting most had their best days. High-frequency trading firms recorded record profits on the exact morning when retail investors lost money through stop-loss orders that executed far below their intended prices. If it was truly a technical malfunction, why did it benefit one side so predictably?
- Most investors are doing something different than what they think they're doing. The difference between buying an allocation (a basket of securities with shared characteristics) and buying an investment (fractional ownership in real cash flows) is being deliberately blurred. But the consequences of confusing the two are becoming harder to ignore.
- The infrastructure makes the confusion profitable for some. Exchange-traded funds can be traded like individual stocks, which seems beneficial. But this feature accelerates the transformation of thoughtful allocation into casino-style trading, especially when investors apply stock-picking rules like stop-losses to allocation instruments.
- The mythology is now more fragile than the actual markets. Investors maintain the story that they're Great Stock Pickers making heroic decisions, even though nearly everything they do is allocation. When reality collides with this story during volatile periods, the word "glitch" becomes a way to avoid asking what's really broken.
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