The Donkey of Guizhou

Interesting……increasingly, as we protest here in HK, and the government responds by condemning the public, its evolving into an ‘in your face’ challenge to the authorities…… “you think you intimidate us ? go ahead, lets see what you got”……
Younger Chinese here are wise to their culture, and the traditional ‘ death by a thousand cuts’ of the Communist party’s slow takeover/corruption of our institutions.……
The youngsters want to force the issue……

New meaning to…“don’t be an ass”!

“Pride goes before destruction, a haughty spirit before a fall.” ~ Proverbs 16:18

The question is how long can the CCP allow the insurrection in HK to go on before they would begin to lose face and it would start to spread? Surely they’d want to act decisively before that happens. Red team this out a bit. Can Beijing wait for the US election and risk the spirit of insurrection to spread? Or do they make a military incursion into HK maybe? What would be the NATO response to that? I’m betting Beijing thinks that’s unlikely, as Crimea/Ukraine was a big tell. US direct military response? Does the US draw the line at HK or Taiwan? Maybe the US abandons HK, and stages troops at Taiwan for negotiating leverage to negotiate a better trade deal in exchange for the abandonment of both? Interesting times!

The issues in HK have been on the boil for a while, it’s a classic case of what Ben calls the Nudging oligarchy in collusion with the Government. Slowly the government has given in to increasing encroachment by the communists……
The extradition bill was the trigger.
For China, HK is one of the two key conduits to convert soft currency RMB into hard currency [the other being parking their dollars from export sales overseas, without remitting to China]
Communists do not know how to make money
They are brilliant, and quite ruthless, at taking your money.
So the dilemma for the communists is this : a lot of the money they get comes from HK.
With the US trade and further sanctions coming, HK is the only conduit to the outer world of trade and finance. Shanghai is nowhere close, and with the communist resurgence, isn’t likely to get there anytime in the foreseeable future either.
A military incursion into HK would destroy its value as this conduit. It would also put the final nail in the coffin to attempt any reunification with Taiwan under the “one China two systems” policy.
As an example, Alibaba’s hurried attempts to create a 2nd listing in HK is a part of this. With the Trump war set to expand, they can no longer count on not being messed up in some future sanctions activity against Chinese ADRs on Wall St .

DB did some analysis on market reaction to last couple of spats. US market fell more than the Chinese market (though it was seen to be due to official Chinese support). The difference is not statistically significant in my opinion, but it lends some credence to Ben’s who is the donkey and who is the tiger…

I think the CIA/fill in the blank is helping to stir up the good people of HK, as part of the Donkey-in-Chief’s policy,so to speak. They will be crushed and there’s nothing anybody can or will do see, e.g., Crimea. The ambassador from the PRC was visiting France while it was still France, Under Pompidou, and was asked: “What do you think of the French Revolution?” The answer? “Too soon to tell…” They play the long game and the government can force much more hardship than the US could ever bear. Of course, I know about the Middle-class and their Oligarchs like"Jack" Ma. They differ from people like Mikhail Khodorkovsky, once worth $15 billion, in that Ma and his ilk know not to buck the political system and the regime depends on them for generating jobs and lots of payola. As opposed to say Bo Xilai. PRC will win by crushing their own people and economy if need be. This IS a game of chicken. Thelma and Louise style