Hunger Games

Epsilon Theory

February 4, 2021·31 comments·Money

You were told that markets reward skill and research. You were told that retail investors could "democratize" Wall Street by banding together. Last week proved both stories false. But in the wreckage of the GameStop frenzy, something unprecedented was exposed: the actual mechanics of who profits from your trades, who sets the rules, and how quickly those rules can change when the game stops working for those in charge.

  • Your bets don't determine winners. Other bets determine winners. The GameStop surge proved that price movement can happen independently of what any company actually does, that collective betting itself becomes the entire "game." This breaks the basic assumption underlying all market narratives about investing.
  • The referees own the game, not the players. Market makers like Citadel Securities pocket the spread on every single trade without taking any market risk, making billions regardless of whether you profit or lose. They don't care which direction you're betting, only that you're betting.
  • The rules exist to protect those rules. When retail buying threatened hedge funds, the settlement clearinghouse mysteriously raised capital requirements, forcing trading platforms to shut down at a critical moment. This wasn't an accident or a system failure. It was a system working as designed.
  • The "revolution" narrative was manufactured by those it claimed to oppose. Every politician, media outlet, and financial player used the retail revolt to advance their own agenda while the actual structure of market power remained completely untouched and more entrenched than ever.
  • Something fundamental shifted in what everyone now knows. Retail investors can no longer believe the market is primarily determined by company performance. The curtain is pulled back. The question is whether that collective awareness changes anything.

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Comments

handshaw's avatar
handshawover 5 years ago

Bingo. Thank you.


robh's avatar
robhover 5 years ago

Yet another reminder— follow the money. You may think you are the customer but you are not. You ARE the product. And you (your eyeballs, tweets, posts, stock orders, search history, viewing history, emails, etc) are being sold to the highest bidder.

SOYLENT GREEN IS PEOPLE! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Sp-VFBbjpE


CalicoPr3's avatar
CalicoPr3over 5 years ago

Well done


JaneyVee's avatar
JaneyVeeover 5 years ago

Did Dr. Ben just publish his long-awaited book???


RetiredRgg's avatar
RetiredRggover 5 years ago

Wishful thinking: Eliminate Citizens United, bar anyone from being able to accept a speaking fee or related activity from holding public office, charge a dime a share and stiffen the Fair Doctrine laws while including social media. Not very small d but I think we’re are too far down the tube to extract ourselves without a painful clasp of our behind.


Desperate_Yuppie's avatar
Desperate_Yuppieover 5 years ago

I feel as if I’ve said this a few times over the last six months, but it continues to be true: Ben, this may be your greatest note yet.


bhunt's avatar
bhuntover 5 years ago

Thank you! This one was from the heart, and it gave me a chance to weave together so many threads from the past 8 years!


bostondad's avatar
bostondadover 5 years ago

BINGO !!


bostondad's avatar
bostondadover 5 years ago

terrific piece.
One quibble (as a Pats fan !!), the anlogy doesn’t quite work, because GME went BACK to $400 the following day after RH shut down. (The media won’t talk about this - just watch, i.e., small investors had a chance to sell the next day - but didn’t.)
So it would be like the Jets not being able to play offense for the 3rd Q, but then getting the ball back in the 4th, and going ahead again, only to lose in the end.
and as we can see with GME<70 as I write this - the House always wins.


rguinn's avatar
rguinnover 5 years ago

Let’s call it the Pick 6 exception!

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